EMBARGOED RELEASE聽|聽December 21, 2009
Into the heart of the climate debate
What鈥檚 warming us up? Human activity or Mother Nature?
WASHINGTON, Dec. 21, 2009 鈥� Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN), the weekly newsmagazine of the world鈥檚 largest scientific society, today published a major analysis of the divisive issues at the heart of the debate over global warming and climate change. The article appears at the conclusion of the much-publicized United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, which sought to seal a comprehensive international agreement on dealing with global warming. An embargoed text is available to journalists upon request.
颁&补尘辫;贰狈鈥檚 8,900-word cover story notes that global warming believers and skeptics actually agree on a cluster of core points:
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- Earth鈥檚 atmospheric load of carbon dioxide 鈥� the main greenhouse gas 鈥� has increased since the Industrial Revolution began in the late 1700s.
- Carbon dioxide bloat results largely from burning of coal and other fossil fuels.
- Average global temperatures have risen since 1850, with most of the warming occurring since 1970.
鈥淏ut here is where the cordial agreements stop,鈥� writes Stephen K. Ritter, a senior correspondent for C&EN, a publication of the 154,000-member American Chemical 中国365bet中文官网. 鈥淎t the heart of the global warming debate is whether warming is directly the result of increasing anthropogenic CO2 levels, or if it is simply part of Earth鈥檚 natural climatic variation.鈥�
Ritter presents a sweeping panorama of global climate change science from the point of view of those who support both scenarios. The story notes that the debate is growing ever more contentious in light of the recent disclosure of e-mail messages suggesting that some scientists supporting the human activities scenario tried to suppress publication of opposing viewpoints.
Most climate scientists maintain that man-made global warming is happening, the article states. This majority opinion has been disseminated in peer-reviewed reports over the past 20 years by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an entity established by the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization.
Climatologist Michael Hulme of the University of East Anglia, in England, told Ritter that the scientific evidence backing the basic idea of human activity changing the global climate system is now overwhelming, even if scientific predictions for future climate change are still shrouded in uncertainty.
鈥淚t is vital that we understand the many valid reasons for disagreeing about global warming and climate change,鈥� Hulme says in the article. 鈥淲e must recognize that they are rooted in different political, national, organizational, religious, and intellectual cultures 鈥撯€� our different ways of seeing the world.
鈥淏ut we must not hide behind the dangerously false premise that consensus science leads to consensus politics,鈥� Hulme adds. 鈥淚n the end, politics will always trump science. Making constructive use of the idea of climate change means that we need better politics, not merely better science.鈥�
However, global-warming skeptics argue that there is still a lot of guesswork in how scientists come to their conclusions. They take exception to the notion that there is a 鈥渃onsensus鈥� agreement on the science 鈥撯€� that the science is settled and devastating man-made global warming is a foregone conclusion.
鈥淭he only contentious aspect of the IPCC assessment is attribution 鈥撯€� what is the cause of global warming and climate change,鈥� says atmospheric physicist S. Fred Singer, who is president of the Science & Environmental Policy Project, a public policy institute based in Arlington, Va. 鈥淲e have looked at every bit of data that IPCC has brought forth, and we see no credible evidence for human-caused global warming. None.鈥�
In response to the latest IPCC report, Singer and other scientists formed the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). NIPCC is an international coalition of scientists 鈥撯€� 35 participants relative to the 2,500 participants in IPCC鈥檚 2007 assessment鈥撯€揷onvened to provide a 鈥渟econd opinion鈥� on the scientific evidence available on the causes and consequences of climate change. The NIPCC report was published by the Heartland Institute, a Chicago-based public policy organization. Unlike the IPCC report, the NIPCC conclusions are not peer-reviewed.
The issue of C&EN also contains three news stories on developments at the UN climate change meeting.
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